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Shops and stores

Supermarket financial model, built free.

A three-statement Excel model for a supermarket and grocery chain, built from your own figures and checked to balance.

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We use generative AI in parts of our process, so mistakes can occur. Every model should be checked by a person before it is relied on. Read more

The business

Sells groceries, fresh food and liquor through supermarket formats plus an online home-delivery and click-and-collect channel, earning a thin gross margin on high volumes with negative working capital.

See the sampleHow the model works

In short

  • 01

    Three linked statements

    Income statement, balance sheet and cash flow, linked in every period.

  • 02

    Valued two ways

    Discounted cash flow and trading multiples, side by side.

  • 03

    Monthly to annual

    Monthly, quarterly, half-yearly or annual periods, for up to 30 years.

  • 04

    Checked every period

    A Checks sheet shows the balance sheet balances and the cash reconciles.

The sample

The sample, as Excel draws it.

Built by the same system and checks as yours, on illustrative figures: every sheet as Excel draws it, or live.

Annual · 10 years · Low detail
Supermarket sample model.xlsx
The Summary sheet of the sample supermarket model

Illustrative figures: the sample describes no real business. The live preview shows values; your model’s Excel file has every formula.

How it works

How the model works for a supermarket.

  1. How it earns revenue3 formulas
    Sales · All store formats
    Online salesOrdersAverage order value
    Concessions, services and other retail income · All store formats
    Concession, services and other retail incomeOnline salesfrom salesOther retail income (% of sales)
    Loyalty, gift cards and memberships · Across the business
    Loyalty rewards deferred from revenueSalesfrom all unitsLoyalty reward cost (% of sales)
  2. What drives its costs3 formulas
    Cost of goods sold · All store formats
    Cost of goods soldLanded cost of product soldShrinkageFreight and logisticsLess supplier rebates
    Store and channel operating costs · All store formats
    Store operating costsStore wagesRentOther store costsVariable store costsPre-opening costs
    Marketing and customer acquisition · All store formats
    Marketing and customer acquisitionCustomer acquisition spendRetention marketing
  3. What it invests in3 formulas
    Store capex and depreciation · All store formats
    Capital expenditureOnline salesfrom salesCapex as % of sales
    Store capex and depreciation · All store formats
    Less depreciationDepreciation (run-off of a mix of vintages)Depreciation
    Store capex and depreciation · All store formats
    Closing net book valueOpening net book valueAdd capital expenditureLess depreciation
  4. How it is funded3 formulas
    Debt
    RepaymentsScheduled repaymentsPrepayments from an equity raise and the cash sweep
    Debt
    Closing balanceOpening balanceDrawdownsRepayments
    Debt
    Interest expenseOpening balanceAll-in interest rateshare of the year
  5. How profit becomes cash3 formulas
    Working capital
    Trade receivablesRevenuefrom statementsDebtor daysDays in period
    Working capital
    InventoryDirect costs (positive)from statementsInventory daysDays in period
    Working capital
    Trade payablesCash operating costs (positive)from statementsCreditor daysDays in period
What it covers

28 parts, each one tested.

Every part is a tested building block with its own checks: yours is put together from the ones your business needs.

  • CPI forecastConsensus curve with long-run anchor
  • Corporate costsFixed cost base indexed to CPI
  • Working capitalFull working capital
  • Income taxCorporate rate with tax losses
  • Corporate fixed assetsStraight-line over remaining life
  • DebtAmortising term loan
  • Dividends and distributionsPayout of net profit
  • Discounted cash flow valuationDCF on free cash flow to the firm
  • Multiples valuationEV / EBITDA multiple
  • LeasesLease register
  • Key-metric summaryLast-twelve-month and run-rate metrics
  • Budget phasingSeasonal profile of twelve monthly weights
  • Covenant tests and headroomLVR, gearing and ICR for property
  • Case selectionStackable stress toggles
  • Discount rate (WACC)CAPM at target gearing
  • Seasonal phasing of salesHistorical monthly profileHow annual sales — and the stock and cash that follow them — are spread across months or quarters.
  • InventoryStock per store plus DC stockStock held in stores, distribution centres and in transit, and the cash it ties up.
  • Distribution and logisticsLogistics % of salesDistribution-centre, warehousing and outbound freight costs of moving goods to stores, customers or retail accounts.
  • Loyalty, gift cards and membershipsLoyalty cost % of salesCustomer programs that defer revenue — loyalty points, gift cards and paid memberships — and the liability they create.
  • Store networkRoll-out to a target networkStores trading in each period — openings, closures and selling area — which every per-store driver multiplies.
  • SalesOnline sales from active customers × orders × order valueSales of the format — stores, restaurants, cafés or an online channel — the revenue base of every retailer.
  • Cost of goods soldProduct margin less shrinkage and freightCost of the goods (or food) sold by the format, after supplier terms, freight, markdowns and shrinkage.
  • Store and channel operating costsPer-store wages, rent and other costsCosts of running the format — store wages, rent and occupancy, running costs, or an online channel's fulfilment and platform costs (rent here is the pre-AASB 16 cash view).
  • Store capex and depreciationCapex as % of salesFit-out spend on new stores, refurbishments and maintenance, and the depreciation and book value of store assets.
  • Like-for-like growth driverInflation plus volumeLike-for-like (comparable-store) growth built from its drivers — price, volume, traffic, ticket, macro.
  • Marketing and customer acquisitionNew customers × CAC plus retentionSpend on acquiring and retaining customers — media, catalogues, paid search and social, affiliates and CRM.
  • Concessions, services and other retail incomeOther income % of salesIncome earned alongside merchandise sales — concession commissions, extended warranties, consumer-finance commissions and delivery or installation services.
  • Store and unit economicsNew-store investment and paybackFour-wall (store) profit and the return on each new store or restaurant — the unit economics that support a roll-out, a franchise system or an online channel; reporting only.
Key numbers

The numbers it tracks.

  1. 01sales per store
  2. 02LFL growth
  3. 03transactions and basket size
  4. 04gross margin %
  5. 05shrink % of sales
  6. 06CODB % of sales
  7. 07retail media income
  8. 08EBIT margin
  9. 09online penetration
  10. 10inventory and payable days
Used for

What it is used for.

Also used for
  • Scenarios and sensitivities
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The sample is built on illustrative figures and describes no real business. Models are calculations prepared from the information you provide. They are not financial advice and must be independently verified. See our terms.