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Gaming and wagering

Lottery operator financial model, built free.

A three-statement Excel model for a lottery and keno operator, built from your own figures and checked to balance.

  • Free account
  • No card
  • Usually ready within the hour

We use generative AI in parts of our process, so mistakes can occur. Every model should be checked by a person before it is relied on. Read more

The business

Runs lotteries and keno under long-term government licences, selling tickets through newsagents, venues and digital channels, keeping sales less prizes and paying lottery taxes and retailer commissions, with sales swinging with jackpot sequences.

See the sampleHow the model works

In short

  • 01

    Three linked statements

    Income statement, balance sheet and cash flow, linked in every period.

  • 02

    Valued two ways

    Discounted cash flow and trading multiples, side by side.

  • 03

    Monthly to annual

    Monthly, quarterly, half-yearly or annual periods, for up to 30 years.

  • 04

    Checked every period

    A Checks sheet shows the balance sheet balances and the cash reconciles.

The sample

The sample, as Excel draws it.

Built by the same system and checks as yours: its structure and its inputs, ready for your own figures.

Annual · 10 years · Low detail
Lottery operator sample model.xlsx
The How It Works sheet of the sample lottery operator model

The sample describes no real business. Yours is calibrated to your own figures, so its results are your business’s.

How it works

How the model works for a lottery operator.

  1. How it earns revenue1 formula
    Revenue (top-down) · The business
    RevenueUnits soldAverage price
  2. What drives its costs3 formulas
    Direct costs (top-down) · The business
    Cost of salesRevenuefrom statementsGross margin
    Operating expenses · The business
    Total FTEsOperations and deliverySales and marketingTechnologyFinance, HR and administration
    Operating expenses · The business
    Total average FTEsOperations and deliverySales and marketingTechnologyFinance, HR and administration
  3. What it invests in3 formulas
    Corporate fixed assets
    Capital expenditureRevenuefrom statementsCapex as % of revenueAdditional planned capex
    Corporate fixed assets
    DepreciationDepreciation of the opening asset baseDepreciation of new capex
    Corporate fixed assets
    Closing net book valueOpening net book valueCapital expenditureDepreciation
  4. How it is funded3 formulas
    Debt
    RepaymentsScheduled repaymentsPrepayments from an equity raise and the cash sweep
    Debt
    Closing balanceOpening balanceDrawdownsRepayments
    Debt
    Interest expenseOpening balanceAll-in interest rateshare of the year
  5. How profit becomes cash3 formulas
    Working capital
    Trade receivablesRevenuefrom statementsDebtor daysDays in period
    Working capital
    InventoryDirect costs (positive)from statementsInventory daysDays in period
    Working capital
    Trade payablesCash operating costs (positive)from statementsCreditor daysDays in period
What it covers

17 parts, each one tested.

Every part is a tested building block with its own checks: yours is put together from the ones your business needs.

  • CPI forecastConsensus curve with long-run anchor
  • Revenue (top-down)Price × volume
  • Direct costs (top-down)Gross margin %
  • Operating expensesHeadcount build by function
  • Corporate costsFixed cost base indexed to CPI
  • Working capitalFull working capital
  • Income taxCorporate rate with tax losses
  • Corporate fixed assetsStraight-line over remaining life
  • DebtAmortising term loan
  • Dividends and distributionsPayout of net profit
  • Discounted cash flow valuationDCF on free cash flow to the firm
  • Multiples valuationEV / EBITDA multiple
  • Key-metric summaryLast-twelve-month and run-rate metrics
  • Covenant tests and headroomLVR, gearing and ICR for property
  • Case selectionStackable stress toggles
  • Discount rate (WACC)CAPM at target gearing
  • Customer deposits, deferred revenue and loyaltyDeferred revenue as days of revenueMoney customers pay before they are served — travel and event deposits, advance tickets, gift cards, prepaid memberships — plus loyalty points, patron deposits and gaming jackpots owed to customers.
Key numbers

The numbers it tracks.

  1. 01ticket sales by game
  2. 02large-jackpot draws
  3. 03digital share
  4. 04revenue after prizes
  5. 05EBITDA margin
  6. 06licence amortisation
Used for

What it is used for.

Also used for
  • Scenarios and sensitivities
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Looking for a lottery operator financial model template? Ours arrives built for your business, with your figures in it.

Running a small business? Read what goes into a small business financial model.

See a finished model, sheet by sheet

The sample is built on illustrative figures and describes no real business. Models are calculations prepared from the information you provide. They are not financial advice and must be independently verified. See our terms.