Subscription box and meal kit financial model, built free.
A three-statement Excel model for a subscription box or meal kit, built from your own figures and checked to balance.
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We use generative AI in parts of our process, so mistakes can occur. Every model should be checked by a person before it is relied on. Read more
Bills subscribers for recurring deliveries of boxes (meal kits, pet food, coffee, beauty), earning a margin per box after product, packing and delivery, with growth limited by churn and acquisition cost.
In short
- 01
Three linked statements
Income statement, balance sheet and cash flow, linked in every period.
- 02
Valued two ways
Discounted cash flow and trading multiples, side by side.
- 03
Monthly to annual
Monthly, quarterly, half-yearly or annual periods, for up to 30 years.
- 04
Checked every period
A Checks sheet shows the balance sheet balances and the cash reconciles.
The sample, as Excel draws it.
Built by the same system and checks as yours: its structure and its inputs, ready for your own figures.
The sample describes no real business. Yours is calibrated to your own figures, so its results are your business’s.
How the model works for a subscription box and meal kit.
- How it earns revenue2 formulasSales · All store formatsSubscription salesSales at full box priceLess first-box discountsSales · All store formatsUnearned revenue (billed ahead of dispatch)Subscription salesDays billed ahead of dispatchshare of the year
- What drives its costs3 formulasCost of goods sold · All store formatsCost of goods soldLanded cost of product soldShrinkageFreight and logisticsLess supplier rebatesStore and channel operating costs · All store formatsStore operating costsStore wagesRentOther store costsVariable store costsPre-opening costsMarketing and customer acquisition · All store formatsMarketing and customer acquisitionCustomer acquisition spendRetention marketing
- What it invests in3 formulasStore capex and depreciation · All store formatsCapital expenditureSubscription salesfrom salesCapex as % of salesStore capex and depreciation · All store formatsLess depreciationDepreciation (run-off of a mix of vintages)DepreciationStore capex and depreciation · All store formatsClosing net book valueOpening net book valueAdd capital expenditureLess depreciation
- How it is funded3 formulasDebtRepaymentsScheduled repaymentsPrepayments from an equity raise and the cash sweepDebtClosing balanceOpening balanceDrawdownsRepaymentsDebtInterest expenseOpening balanceAll-in interest rateshare of the year
- How profit becomes cash3 formulasWorking capitalTrade receivablesRevenuefrom statementsDebtor daysDays in periodWorking capitalInventoryDirect costs (positive)from statementsInventory daysDays in periodWorking capitalTrade payablesCash operating costs (positive)from statementsCreditor daysDays in period
22 parts, each one tested.
Every part is a tested building block with its own checks: yours is put together from the ones your business needs.
- CPI forecastConsensus curve with long-run anchor
- Operating expensesHeadcount build by function
- Corporate costsFixed cost base indexed to CPI
- Working capitalFull working capital
- Income taxCorporate rate with tax losses
- DebtAmortising term loan
- Equity raisingDistribution reinvestment plan
- Discounted cash flow valuationDCF on free cash flow to the firm
- Multiples valuationEV / EBITDA multiple
- LeasesLease register
- Key-metric summaryLast-twelve-month and run-rate metrics
- Sources and uses of fundsBalanced sources and uses
- Discount rate (WACC)CAPM at target gearing
- Burn and runwayRunway to the forecast cash-out date
- Unit economicsLTV, CAC and payback from averages
- Store networkScheduled openings and closuresStores trading in each period — openings, closures and selling area — which every per-store driver multiplies.
- SalesSubscription billingSales of the format — stores, restaurants, cafés or an online channel — the revenue base of every retailer.
- Cost of goods soldProduct margin less shrinkage and freightCost of the goods (or food) sold by the format, after supplier terms, freight, markdowns and shrinkage.
- Store and channel operating costsPer-store wages, rent and other costsCosts of running the format — store wages, rent and occupancy, running costs, or an online channel's fulfilment and platform costs (rent here is the pre-AASB 16 cash view).
- Store capex and depreciationCapex as % of salesFit-out spend on new stores, refurbishments and maintenance, and the depreciation and book value of store assets.
- Marketing and customer acquisitionNew customers × CAC plus retentionSpend on acquiring and retaining customers — media, catalogues, paid search and social, affiliates and CRM.
- Store and unit economicsNew-store investment and paybackFour-wall (store) profit and the return on each new store or restaurant — the unit economics that support a roll-out, a franchise system or an online channel; reporting only.
The numbers it tracks.
- 01active subscribers
- 02monthly churn
- 03revenue per box
- 04contribution margin per box
- 05CAC payback
- 06EBITDA margin
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Looking for a subscription box and meal kit financial model template? Ours arrives built for your business, with your figures in it.
Running a small business? Read what goes into a small business financial model.
See a finished model, sheet by sheetThe sample is built on illustrative figures and describes no real business. Models are calculations prepared from the information you provide. They are not financial advice and must be independently verified. See our terms.